The Tripod

On Jan. 19, 2010 the Democratic Party and President Obama took a hard hit when Massachusetts chose to elect its first Republican United States Senator since 1972 to fill the late Edward Kennedy's seat. As the Associated Press declared State Senator Scott Brown the winner, the Democrats' filibuster proof majority in the Senate suddenly evaporated and key aspects of the Obama agenda came to a screeching halt.

Before Senator Kennedy could roll over in his grave, the spin-doctors of the right were already out in full force, their voices screaming the loudest-from the gurgling, demagogic Glenn Beck to the more tempered but equally ecstatic Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. They proclaimed a mini revolution had taken place in the state where the people are almost as blue as the waters of Cape Cod Bay.

All I can say to those reveling in Scott Brown's victory is this: not so fast. The story behind the results is a bit more nuanced than the talking heads would like you to believe.

The election will admittedly have traumatic implications for the Obama agenda, but they are inadvertent and not the actual will of the voters. Brown won because of a combination of factors that, on their own, would not have been enough to put him in first place.

This 'perfect storm' that allowed Brown's victory is far from a rejection of President Obama, who still remains personally and politically popular in the state. It is just an unfortunate coincidence that this electoral anomaly will have such a strong influence on obstructing his agenda.

First, there was an enthusiasm gap. When a political party finds itself downtrodden, as the Republicans have as of late, there is a mobilization within the party to regain power. Conversely, those enjoying the perks of power see little need to sustain that power.

Such was the case in Massachusetts, as Democrats and Martha Coakley stumbled through the campaign, only committing resources to it when they realized the growing, unstoppable devotion of the other side. Brown voters were mobilized and cutthroat. (On Election Day, a Brown supporter called up a Boston talk radio station to gleefully report a car accident involving a Coakley supporter driving by a group of Brown supporters.)

The Tea Party movement, a group of conservatives that has challenged Republicans in other states but remained remarkably cohesive in Massachusetts, also aided his campaign.

Second, the numbers don't lie. Brown won Massachusetts by capturing 1,168,107 votes. A little over a year ago, a candidate lost Massachusetts by a whopping 26 percent with roughly the same number of votes. That candidate was Senator John McCain.

There is then little evidence in the results that points to a shift in the opinions of Massachusetts' voters. Rather, all the results show is that the right wing got out the vote and that the left wing didn't. A sampling of polls before the election showed Coakley beating Brown among registered voters by a wide margin, but losing among likely voters.

Third, personality trumped politics. Voters put aside the issues when picking their candidate. According to The New York Times, 68 percent of Massachusetts voters supported their state's current health care plan, a system nearly identical to the one President Obama and Democrats are trying to enact. Half of those voters were Brown supporters, and Brown's promise to be the 41st vote against health care reform was one of his main campaign pledges.

Brown was an appealing candidate, both physically and personally. He gained national notoriety for his 1982 naked spread in Cosmopolitan and his pickup truck with 200,000 miles on it.

The media also ate up a remarkable television advertisement where he walks across middle-class South Boston, thanking well-wishers who shouted "good luck" from a triple-decker by saying "thank you so much … and the dogs too!", acknowledging the dogs barking from the window.

These iconic images of Brown handsomely and humbly traversing the Commonwealth became seared into the short-term memories of voters.

Where Brown succeeded, Coakley failed. She often appeared aloof and disconnected from the voters, and her likeability ratings were paltry. In the gaffe heard 'round the Red Sox Nation, she accused Curt Schilling of being a Yankees fan, and then passed it off as a joke.

Even former Republican Governor Bill Weld admits that Coakley's faux pas tipped the scale against her. He told The Atlantic magazine that they "had to be worth ten points, which means she would have won by five points without the gaffes." Brown's victory could not have come at a worse time. But the implications of his election carry more weight than the message the voters were trying to send.

So to my Republican friends, I say this: don't puff your chests up too much. Victory is not necessarily a given come November. And to my Democratic friends, take solace. It's not as bad as you think.

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