The Tripod

The elections of 2009 were marketed in the media as either a referendum on Obama or a demonstration of a pendulum swinging right.  They were neither. Instead, they were a reminder of the practical mood of the country, especially in this time of crisis at home and abroad.  The so called Obama Revolution was partly about Obama, partly about the failure of the Bush years, and partly about the rise of Independent.  This year, the election was all about the rise of Independents and the pragmatism of America in crisis.

Three races were the mark of some intrigue in last Tuesday's election, including Virginia's Gubernatorial race, New Jersey's Gubernatorial race, and a special election for a congressional seat in New York's 23rd district. In the weeks and days preceding Election Day, these sample races were trumpeted as a referendum on Obama, or at least an indicator of his job performance. I find this to be presumptive, particularly given the sparse number of races and the fact that New Jersey's Corzine had objectively underperformed and Virginia's Democratic Party put up a minor figure from outside the main.  That said, I do believe that the outcomes of these races serve to illustrate where we stand politically, but the illustration is about the pragmatic center more than it is about a swinging pendulum.

            While the leadership of our political parties may like to tell us otherwise, our Nov. 3 election tells us that we are still very much a centrist country. We see this particularly in the race for New York's 23rd   which went to a Democrat after the local Republican party mangled its edge in a highly conservative district.

            In September, Republican representative John McHugh resigned to become the Secretary of the Army. This triggered a special election for the then vacant seat in which the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, defeated Conservative candidate, Doug Hoffman. This, however, was only after Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race. Hoffman, who garnered national appeal from Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity out polled the left leaning Republican candidate, forcing her out.

            Certainly, the tension between Scozzafava and Hoffman is indicative of the fissures within the GOP. While Hoffman may have outpolled Scozzafava, it is presumptive to say that Hoffman was the better candidate. In fact, it is alarming that Hoffman could not win in New York's 23rd.  On Sunday, New York Times columnist, Frank Rich, described the district when he said, "Only if the district were situated in Dixie - or Utah - could it be a more perfect fit for the narrow American demographic where the McCain-Palin ticket had its sole romps last year."

            Scozzafava, who was vehemently criticized from the right for being a left-leaning Republican, may have had a much better chance at defeating the Democrat, Owens. Scozzafava's greatest asset, in terms of electability, was her predicted appeal to independents and Democrats, something for which Hoffman could not account.

            This was a particularly hard loss for the Republican Party, since they are looking to close the gap in the house and the senate in 2010. Even more so, however, this is a setback for the far right, who are going to great lengths to push their agenda. And, while conservatives Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell won the New Jersey and Virginia Governorships, respectively, they both rejected Sarah Palin's offer to campaign for them. Ultimately, Republican victories came in the form of moderated campaigns, distinct from Tea-Party revolutionaries. The closely watched N.Y.-23rd was evidence that perhaps the right-wing, Tea-Party, Sarah Palin ideology does not resonate with the average American voter - though we already knew this.

            Instead, we leave the 2009 election with a greater understanding of where the American voter does stand. Clearly not to the far right, nor on the far left - the way many house Democrats would postulate - the average American voter seems to be placed somewhere in the center. It seems that those who say the independents are shifting in one direction or the other have misread the political landscape. Rather, the Parties have shifted in one direction or another.  The person who best understands this dynamic is Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia), who has smartly staked out what he calls the Radical Center. What Warner has understood throughout his own impressive rise first to Governor and now US Senator is that America wants solutions, not slogans.  Indeed, today, with double digit unemployment and a failed war in Iraq and a quagmire in Afghanistan, blustery politicos from either side need no longer apply. 

            The Republicans are in a good position to pick up seats next year - if they can leave behind the old Palin palliatives of bygone cultural wars and focus on solving the problems the Great Recession, the need for improved infrastructure and reformed healthcare, financial and energy policies, and the ongoing instability in global security. If Republicans learned anything from 2009, it is that elections are won in the middle, where pragmatic solutions are offered to people in real pain. Running Tea-Party candidates, even in Tea-Party territory, is not a winning strategy. These are at best a distraction to people in need of stronger ale, as the people of New York's 23rd made clear.

            And Democrats are not immune to the politics of the pragmatic center.  Left-leaning Democrats, especially those overly enamored with universal health care and the public option, particularly when unemployment is above 10 percent, may find themselves out of a job come Nov. 2010.   Any doubts about the need for Democrats to be pragmatic were put to rest this weekend when the House passed a healthcare bill only because pragmatic Democrats threw abortion subsidies under the bus, thereby giving new meaning to the old saw about politics making for strange bedfellows.

Both parties have tended towards their extremes in the decades preceding the rise of Independents, a movement that said in no uncertain terms to each party, "We have seen your film and we are not staying to see it again."  In our time of crisis, the party that captures the center will likely fare well in 2010. Both parties need to get the memo: the place is the center.

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