The Tripod

Let me start by saying that there is no correct way to predict the result of a college basketball game. One could reasonably pick the winner based on match-ups, experience, coaching, leadership and a variety of other factors. But anyone that goes to fill out his bracket based on a set formula will almost surely fail.

That being said, there are common denominators that can point you in the right direction and help you identify the lurking upsets that will make or break your bracket.

An upset starts at the top. Ultimately, an upset depends more on the weakness of the higher-ranked team than it does on the underdog's performance. There is a reason why the juggernauts blow by teams en route to the Final Four, and it is not necessarily because they are playing weaker opponents. Every year, some of the top seeds are there because their big-time conference was unusually soft (the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC could certainly fit into this category for 2008). If you look at some of the top teams in these conferences and consider which games they lost, it can be a terrific indicator of vulnerability. If they only lost to the top teams in the conference and beat everyone they were supposed to, that's probably a sign they will make it to the Sweet 16. But losses to mediocre conference opponents reveal weaknesses that should not be ignored.

A team's style of play is another important factor in picking the upset. There is a reason teams like Notre Dame and Duke can lose to anyone: they shoot too many threes. A team that relies on the three for a significant percentage of its scoring can hit a cold streak and drop to a hard-nosed mid-major in a heartbeat.

Finally, a team's performance at the end of the season can provide excellent insight into their tournament prospects. When a team like this year's Indiana or last year's Wisconsin flounders late, it still has the resume to earn a strong seed. But that doesn't mean it is going to play like it. Early season non-conference games are important, but remember those games happened months ago when players were still trying to learn how to play with one another and work within the system. A team that gets its act together late is dangerous, but one that still struggles could be primed for an early exit.

One of the best things to do is to analyze a team's schedule. ESPN will prominently display a team's key wins and bad losses, but more information awaits the person willing to dig a little deeper.

For example, a close road loss is better than a tight home win. Playing on the road in college basketball is a uniquely challenging task. Remember, the people playing are kids. They are same age as everyone here, and I bet no one on this campus has ever tried to make a free throw with 50,000 people screaming at him to miss. Young players feed off the crowd for their enthusiasm and channel that into confidence. The crowd helps the home team to stay in a game, even if it is losing big, and can demoralize the visiting team to the point where all it wants to do is leave. A team that hangs tough on the road will welcome the neutral floors come tournament time, and the Notre Dames of the world that go undefeated in conference at home and manage four road losses will struggle to find the courage without their crazed fans behind them

Because players are so young, composure down the stretch is also very important. The best ticket to composure at the end of a close game is to have a leader on the court. Sometimes this means a senior, and other times this just means a player with no fear who can rise his game to match the moment. Those who watched the showdown between North Carolina and Duke over the weekend saw that being a senior is not everything. Duke's DeMarcus Nelson absolutely choked in the big game, while North Carolina's trio of Green, Hansbrough, and Lawson scored the game's final eight points. ESPN.com has a wonderful function that allows you to not only look at the box score of a game, but to look at the play-by-play results.

I suggest you take a look at your underdog, orFinal Four pick for that matter, and make sure it has someone (preferably more than one someone) that can take the game over when it really matters.

This, as well as all of the factors I have already mentioned, could make the difference between glory and defeat in the coming weeks.

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