The Tripod

Watch Reid Vineis discuss his article above.

It is amazing the difference one year can make in the national political atmosphere. In 2007, Democrats were still euphoric from their mid-term congressional victories and Republicans were licking their wounds from what President Bush called a "thumpin'." Democratic presidential contenders were riding high with the odds in their favor.

It seemed that Republicans were just going to have to accept the fact that the 2008 presidential election was out of practical reach. Yet, as this season has evolved the Democrats have lost their seemingly insurmountable lead. Republicans are back in the fight with a strong possibility of winning in November.

This wouldn't be the first time that the Democrats lost what appeared to be a sure thing. In 2004, it also looked like Democrats were going take over the Oval Office. John Kerry had a number of issues with which to produce a win. The war in Iraq was unpopular with violent battles in Fallujah and the discovery of none of the alleged WMDs. The nation was still recovering from the post-9/11 recessions, and abroad the United States was seen as a bully. Democrats were so confident in their chances that on the election night evening Kerry's staff started to call him "Mr. President." But when it was all said and done George W. Bush was still the president, squeaking out a victory 50 to 48 percent.

This year, one of the greatest advantages for us bow tie aficionados and Field and Stream subscribers is that while Democrats battle each other, we have already selected a nominee. Now that John McCain's fate is locked in, he can begin preparing for the general election. All the while, Democrats are engaged in an epic ugly process that resembles more of a Native American vision quest than a nominating process. Instead of planning their road to the White House, it looks like the party decided it would wander into the woods for 12 months and see what happens when they come out in August. There, Democrats are having fun talking about feelings, singing kumbaya, and bending the rules to accommodate each member of their coalition. Meanwhile, Republicans are laying the foundation for victory.

This distinction in strategies has cost the Democratic National Committee dearly. Republicans have out -fundraised their counterparts by a ratio of 6:1. Party Chairman Howard Dean has tried to spin these facts into the best possible light, insisting that they spent all their money on a "50 state strategy."

Dean's plan allocated money trying to turn traditionally red states blue. However, if Hillary Clinton's primary run has taught us anything about the general election, it's that you don't need to win every state to be competitive.

The general election will most likely follow in the formula from 2000 and 2004, where a handful of swing states decide the winner. In such states like Ohio and Florida, recent polls have McCain with a slight advantage over Barack Obama and Clinton. Certainly, much can and probably will change between November and today, but these numbers still indicate that Republicans aren't as many laps behind as was once thought.

The situation in Iraq has also dramatically changed since early 2007. Republicans used to avoid discussion of the war in Iraq like the plague. It was believed that anyone who would take on the subject would have their poll numbers crash faster than Lindsay Lohan on day one of rehab. McCain disproved that wisdom. McCain aggressively called for sending more soldiers to Iraq, and lo and behold his strategy worked. Iraq is seeing record-low levels of violence due to the troop surge.

Democrats will have a hard time convincing Americans that lowering troop levels, not surging, is best for both Iraqis and our troops.

In addition to McCain's strength on the war in Iraq, he also has an impervious personal history with which Obama or Clinton will struggle to compare themselves. Smear tactics are out of the question due to McCain's long history of service to our country as an airman, POW, and respected Senator. The New York Times learned that lesson when they implied without evidence that the Senator had an extra-marital affair. The blowback from the article earned McCain a record day of fundraising. Experience is also an issue out of play as McCain has served in the Senate for over 20 years to Hillary Clinton's seven and Barack Obama's embarrassing three.

There is no debate over the harsh environment in which we live today. We are facing a global war on terror that requires an unprecedented vigilance and commitment against an unrelenting enemy. Our economy faces new struggles as we find our new niche in the international marketplace.

And we still face tough challenges at home: securing our borders, expanding healthcare, and protecting the environment. This election is going to be about who Americans feel is strongest to lead the country amidst these hard realities of 2008.

In these days, Democrats have lost the advantage from one year ago. McCain is a proven leader. Besides his support of the troop surge, the maverick Senator also ferreted out corruption leading hearings into the Jack Abramoff scandal and stopped pork barrel spending.

As the 2000 and 2004 elections proved, Americans prefer a candidate who has shown they can deliver on their promises, not one who shows their na'veté. The scenery has changed dramatically since 2006. Clinton and Obama can click their heels all they want, but they should prepare for a very close fight in the general election.

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